Best Dice Set For Craps
- The dice will just end up bouncing all over the craps table. Even the best 'unbeatable craps strategy' will never work! Setting Analysis: The Union of Dice Control and Dice Setting Make sure to read my simple intro how to shoot craps on this site. It's a very quick crash course on Dice Control.
- Even the best dice controllers state that many hours of practice are required to get an advantage at craps—and a certain amount of natural skill (Wong, 2005). Great putters in golf can guide a golf ball into a hole under a variety of environmental factors; so, the idea is that throwing dice in craps can also be guided (to some degree).
Just skip the bad bets, and you’re all set. The Bests Bets at the Craps Table. The best bets at the craps table are the pass line bet and the don’t pass bet. The come and don’t come bets are also great wagers. I always advise casino gamblers to try to limit their gambling to games where the house edge is lower than 2% — preferably 1.5%.
Please remember! These are archives! The Dice Setter message board was shut down. What is published here are just a few of the threads documenting the early days of dice setting strategies and opinions written by the pioneers of dice influencing.
Hardway Set for 7 Avoidance
Roller
Some players apparently use a hardway set for 7 avoidance. This is with the 1 -&- 6 as the axis for each die and the 2/2, 3/3, 4/4/ and 5/5 for the dice faces.
Any one use this set for 7 avoidance? There are different opinions on this. Some say it's NOT optimal for 7 avoidance as it results in 7's all the way around the 1/6 axis if one of the die turns twice more than the other!
But another point of view is that the set reduces the overall occurrence of 7 because a perfect axial roll is difficult and the 1/6 axial hardway set minimizes overall 7 occurrence when off axis movement occurs -- a frequent occurrence especially AFTER the dice hit the table and roll before coming to a stop.
Any thoughts on this?
Al Coates
I use the V-3 set almost always; sometimes a 2-4 on top. I don't yet consider myself a good precision roller, although I am getting better at it. I'd be very interested in what other shooters consider to be good sets to avoid the 7 or, alternatively, to bring on the 7. Thanks in advance.
Dylanfreak
I consider myself as the worlds worst precision roller. I practice different sets and take the results to the casino. All results are based on 540 throws of the dice (As Irishsetter said on his practice page). I use the all sevens set as a comeout roll when I am shooting from the Dont, 1 6 1 6 axis with the 4 and 3 facing up. I find using this set , I throw more craps and fewer naturals than any other sets I have tried so far. That makes this the best set for me on the comeout roll when I am shooting from the Don't. After the comeout when shooting from the don't , I use 2 5 ,2 5 axis and 6 6 facing up, with this set I get the most sevens.
Heavy
Hey Roller -
I'm really glad you brought this up. This is the set that Sharpshooter touted in his article on dice setting in the Casino.com magazine a couple of months back - the article that had everyone so torqued over his Bally's session where they shut down the table on him. Anyway - he discusses the hardway set as one of the most powerful seven avoidance sets - thrown with the 1- 6 axis on both dice. As you know, with both dice are on the same axis there are 4 ways to make the seven on that axis out of 16 possible combinations of the dice. Let's assume you are throwing it with the hard six up - since Al mentioned that set. With the 6-1 on axis on both dice all of the hardway numbers are indeed available on axis. By rotating one die a quarter turn you now have the V-3's hardway set - with the hard 6 and 8 on axis - along with the easy six and eight - and the five, nine, three and eleven. But on the V-3's there are only two combinations that add up to seven - and there is the strength of that set.
In his defense, Sharpshooter said his skills were such that he could toss the dice on axis - with both dice moving thru the air as mirror images of each other - if he set for a hard eight he threw the hard eight. Whether or not he can do this consistently remains to be seen.
I have tried the hardway set as a come out roll with all of the hardways working - and have been quite successful with that move. But once the point is established I switch to a set that favors the point - while avoiding the seven.
Seems to me to be the sensible way to play.
Billy
Lets think about what we are trying to accomplish. If precision shooting is your goal then having the dice fly together and hit together and react together is what you should be working towards. If you can do that then the hardway set is a good one to use because of all the things that have been mentioned.
Now lets talk about most of us. If you cannot keep both die on axis consistently then the hard way set will work well for you because when the one die goes off axis then you have another axis in rotation. If you can keep the dice on axis but cannot control their rotation together then the flying V will work the best, because there are more inside numbers in rotation and the way the seven shows is by having the 'pair faces' rotate 180 degrees from each other.
Having said that,I believe that if you can control the dice together in the air and after they land then the flying V is absolutely the way to set.Alot of shooters swear by the crossed sixes, I'm not one of them. In my opinion using the crossed sixes vs the flying V means you have traded two combinations that make six and eight for high, low, which during the normal course of the game are neutral numbers and are wasted tosses.I f I am 'ON' and keeping the dice together, in the air and on the layout, I would rather see the hard six or eight that aces or midnight, because to make those two rolls of the dice pay you must make bets that fall in one roll if they don't win, hats horn, hi/lo or field. The only time place six and eight fall is when all of the do side bets fall.
So here's my take...If you are just starting the hardway set is a good one to start with. You will know right away if your tosses are on target because the hardways will show, and if one die is off axis then the 5/9 or 4/10 easy will show. If all you are doing is trying to control axis rotation without consideration to the dice rotating together, then any of the seven avoidance sets will be about equal, in that your chance of the bad guy is one in eight. If you can control rotation all the way to when the dice stop then using the flying V will result in the 6/8 showing most often.
Disclaimer
One of the most hotly debated topics among advantage gamblers is whether or not it is possible to influence the throw of the dice in craps. Personally, I'm still skeptical. I don't rule out the possibility, but I'm not convinced. Most casinos happily allow it. If I ran a casino, I would allow it too, because I think the number of people who can influence the dice (if any) is far outweighed by the number who think they can, but can't. Still some people I respect do believe in it, mainly Stanford Wong, who trained under Golden Touch Craps. My craps appendix 3 outlines evidence I have gathered. That said, everything else in this page is from the hypothetical perspective that the dice can be influenced. The purpose of this page is to quantify the player advantage, according to his skill level, and recommend the best dice settings.
How Dice Control Allegedly Works
Even the strongest believers in dice control will admit that most throws, even of the best shooters, are still random. However, it takes a small percentage only of precise throws to overcome the house edge. What is happening on these successful throws? There are two schools of thought, or types of shooters. Both types of shooters set the dice in a certain way, hoping to keep them on axis, and together in rotation, as if the dice were glued together. Two things can go wrong after the dice leave the shooter's hands, and that is what divides the two types of shooters.
The first type of shooter is what I'll call the 'correlation shooter.' The correlation shooter does no better than a random shooter at keeping the dice on axis. However, when the dice do stay on axis, the rotations of the two dice are correlated. For a random shooter, if the dice did stay on axis, there would be a 25% chance of their landing with the same faces together, as when the dice were in the shooter's hand. The correlation shooter hopes to increase this probability above 25%, by reducing the probability of the dreaded double-pitch throw. A double-pitch is when both dice stay on axis, but one die rotates 180 degrees more than the other. Likewise, a single-pitch is when both dice stay on axis, but one die rotates 90 degrees more or less than the other. Based on a careful reading of Wong on Dice, for purposes of this page, I assume the correlation shooter shoots randomly, except the probability of zero-pitch throws is a certain percentage higher than expectations, at the cost of an equal reduction in double-pitches. Wong never states this is exactly what happens with correlation shooters; it is my own simplified interpretation. To get specific results from my analysis, I had to put in some specific assumptions.
The second type of shooter is what I'll call the 'axis shooter.' Not only can the axis shooter keep the dice correlated when they do stay on axis, but he can keep them on axis more than the expected 44.44% of the time of a random shooter.
Stanford Wong writes in 'Wong on Dice' that most careful shooters he observed were not keeping both dice on axis more than the random expectations, but were achieving influence through correlation. Based on my faith in Wong, the following tables are all under the assumption of correlation shooting only.
Dice Settings
There are 84 distinct ways to set the dice. In my analysis for this page, I examined all 84 sets, and noted the best set for each bet. The following sets are the only ones that came up as the best for the bets studied. For practical purposes, the only sets you need to know are Hard Ways set #1 and Sevens set #1. The other sets are either equally as good in some situations, or optimal for bets you shouldn’t be making, because better bets are available.
Dice Settings
| Hard Ways Set #1: This is the king of the dice sets. It is the best, or tied for best, for rolling any point before a 7. |
| Hard Ways Set #2: This set is equally as good as the Hard Ways set #1 for rolling points of 4, 5, 9, and 10. It is also the best set on a come out roll for the don't pass bet. |
| Hard Ways Set #3: This set is equally as good as the Hard Ways set #1 for rolling points of 5, 6, 8, and 9. |
| Sevens Set #1: In my opinion, this set is the best for rolling sevens. It is the best set on the come out roll for pass line bets. It also tied for best for rolling a seven after a don't pass bet on points of 4, 5, 9, and 10. |
| Sevens Set #2: This set is the best, or tied for best, for rolling a seven after a don't pass bet on all points. |
| Sevens Set #3: This set is the best, or tied for best, for rolling sevens after making a don't pass bet on points of 5, 6, 8, and 9. |
Skill Factor
The skill factor is defined as the percentage of double-pitch throws that the skillful shooter turns into zero-pitch throws. A skill factor of zero would apply to a random shooter, where the probability of both a zero-pitch and double-pitch throw are each (2/3) × (2/3) × (1/4) = 1/9 = 11.11%. A skill factor of 12%, for example, would move 12% of double-pitches into zero-pitches. In this case, the probability of a double-pitch would be 11.11% × 88% = 9.78%, and for a zero-pitch would be 11.11% × 112% = 12.44%. All other outcomes would be the same as that of a random shooter.
Rolls to Sevens Ratio
Most of the time the shooter is going to want to avoid sevens. By far, the most common metric for measuring dice control is the 'Sevens:Rolls Ratio,' or RSR. As defined in 'Wong on Dice,' the RSR is the ratio of rolls to sevens. I believe that acronym is a misnomer, because the rolls to sevens ratio should be abbreviated RSR. So, I am going to break with convention and call it that. For a random shooter, the probability of a seven is 1/6, so the RSR would be 6. A skillful shooter should be able to throw fewer sevens, and thus increase the RSR above 6. As a basis of comparison to other sources, I will include the RSR in my house edge tables. The RSR's mentioned in 'Wong on Dice' are usually in the range of 6.3 to 7.0.
Pass Line with 3-4-5X Odds
The following table shows the player advantage on the pass line bet, with 3-4-5X odds, according to skill factor. I measured the house edge two different ways. The column for the house edge with the Hard Way set (HW#1), is the house edge if the shooter always uses the Hard Way set #1, even on a come out roll. The column for the house edge with the Hard Way and Seven sets (HW#1 & 7#1) applies when the shooter uses the Seven set #1 on a come out roll, and the Hard Way set #1 otherwise. The reason for listing the house edge for the Hard Way set alone is that many shooters also make come bets, which would lose on a seven on a come out roll. I've observed some so-called skillful shooters using the Hard Way set on a come out roll, even with no come bets. I believe the reason for this is ease in record keeping.
Best Dice Set Up For Craps
Pass with 3-4-5X Odds
| Skill Factor | RSR | Player Adv. — HW#1 Set | Player Adv. — HW#1 & 7#1 Sets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 6.000 | -0.374% | -0.374% |
| 0.01 | 6.040 | 0.018% | 0.102% |
| 0.02 | 6.081 | 0.414% | 0.581% |
| 0.03 | 6.122 | 0.814% | 1.062% |
| 0.04 | 6.164 | 1.217% | 1.546% |
| 0.05 | 6.207 | 1.623% | 2.032% |
| 0.06 | 6.250 | 2.033% | 2.521% |
| 0.07 | 6.294 | 2.447% | 3.012% |
| 0.08 | 6.338 | 2.864% | 3.506% |
| 0.09 | 6.383 | 3.284% | 4.003% |
| 0.10 | 6.429 | 3.709% | 4.502% |
| 0.11 | 6.475 | 4.137% | 5.004% |
| 0.12 | 6.522 | 4.568% | 5.509% |
| 0.13 | 6.569 | 5.004% | 6.016% |
| 0.14 | 6.618 | 5.443% | 6.527% |
| 0.15 | 6.667 | 5.886% | 7.04% |
| 0.16 | 6.716 | 6.333% | 7.556% |
| 0.17 | 6.767 | 6.784% | 8.074% |
| 0.18 | 6.818 | 7.238% | 8.596% |
| 0.19 | 6.870 | 7.697% | 9.121% |
| 0.20 | 6.923 | 8.160% | 9.648% |
| 0.21 | 6.977 | 8.626% | 10.179% |
| 0.22 | 7.031 | 9.097% | 10.712% |
| 0.23 | 7.087 | 9.572% | 11.249% |
| 0.24 | 7.143 | 10.051% | 11.788% |
| 0.25 | 7.200 | 10.534% | 12.331% |
Don't Pass Line with Laying 3-4-5X Odds
The following table shows the player advantage on the don't pass line bet, with 3-4-5X odds, according to skill factor. As with the pass bet, I measured the house edge two different ways. The first applies if the shooter uses the Seven set #2 on every throw. The second applies if the shooter uses the Hard Way set #2 on the come out roll, and the Seven set #2 on all other throws. Comparing this table to the above table, the player advantage on the pass bet is greater with a skill factor of 0.01 or greater. So, this table is not of much practical value.
Don't Pass, Laying 3-4-5X Odds
| Skill Factor | RSR | Player Adv. — 7#2 Set | Player Adv. — 7#2 & HW#2 Sets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 6.000 | -0.274% | -0.274% |
| 0.01 | 6.040 | 0.021% | 0.080% |
| 0.02 | 6.081 | 0.314% | 0.433% |
| 0.03 | 6.122 | 0.604% | 0.784% |
| 0.04 | 6.164 | 0.892% | 1.133% |
| 0.05 | 6.207 | 1.177% | 1.480% |
| 0.06 | 6.250 | 1.460% | 1.825% |
| 0.07 | 6.294 | 1.741% | 2.168% |
| 0.08 | 6.338 | 2.02% | 2.509% |
| 0.09 | 6.383 | 2.296% | 2.849% |
| 0.10 | 6.429 | 2.570% | 3.186% |
| 0.11 | 6.475 | 2.841% | 3.522% |
| 0.12 | 6.522 | 3.111% | 3.856% |
| 0.13 | 6.569 | 3.378% | 4.189% |
| 0.14 | 6.618 | 3.643% | 4.519% |
| 0.15 | 6.667 | 3.906% | 4.848% |
| 0.16 | 6.716 | 4.166% | 5.175% |
| 0.17 | 6.767 | 4.425% | 5.501% |
| 0.18 | 6.818 | 4.681% | 5.824% |
| 0.19 | 6.870 | 4.935% | 6.146% |
| 0.20 | 6.923 | 5.187% | 6.467% |
| 0.21 | 6.977 | 5.437% | 6.786% |
| 0.22 | 7.031 | 5.685% | 7.103% |
| 0.23 | 7.087 | 5.931% | 7.418% |
| 0.24 | 7.143 | 6.175% | 7.732% |
| 0.25 | 7.200 | 6.417% | 8.045% |
Place and Buy Bets
The next table shows the house edge for placing the 5, 6, 8, and 9, and buying the 4 and 10. When buying the 4 and 10, it is under the rule of paying the commission always. As the table shows, the greatest advantages are on the 6 and 8. If the shooter always used the Hard Way set #1 on the pass line, and had a skill factor of 0.17 or greater, then his advantage would be greater placing the 6 and 8 than the pass line bet with 3-4-5X odds.
Place and Buy Bets
| Skill Factor | RSR | Buy 4,10 | Place 5,9 | Place 6,8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 6.000 | -2.439% | -4.000% | -1.515% |
| 0.01 | 6.040 | -2.115% | -3.614% | -1.048% |
| 0.02 | 6.081 | -1.793% | -3.226% | -0.579% |
| 0.03 | 6.122 | -1.473% | -2.834% | -0.107% |
| 0.04 | 6.164 | -1.155% | -2.439% | 0.368% |
| 0.05 | 6.207 | -0.840% | -2.041% | 0.845% |
| 0.06 | 6.25 | -0.526% | -1.639% | 1.325% |
| 0.07 | 6.294 | -0.215% | -1.235% | 1.807% |
| 0.08 | 6.338 | 0.095% | -0.826% | 2.292% |
| 0.09 | 6.383 | 0.403% | -0.415% | 2.780% |
| 0.10 | 6.429 | 0.708% | 0.000% | 3.271% |
| 0.11 | 6.475 | 1.012% | 0.418% | 3.764% |
| 0.12 | 6.522 | 1.313% | 0.84% | 4.261% |
| 0.13 | 6.569 | 1.613% | 1.266% | 4.76% |
| 0.14 | 6.618 | 1.911% | 1.695% | 5.261% |
| 0.15 | 6.667 | 2.207% | 2.128% | 5.766% |
| 0.16 | 6.716 | 2.501% | 2.564% | 6.274% |
| 0.17 | 6.767 | 2.793% | 3.004% | 6.784% |
| 0.18 | 6.818 | 3.083% | 3.448% | 7.298% |
| 0.19 | 6.870 | 3.372% | 3.896% | 7.814% |
| 0.20 | 6.923 | 3.659% | 4.348% | 8.333% |
| 0.21 | 6.977 | 3.943% | 4.803% | 8.856% |
| 0.22 | 7.031 | 4.227% | 5.263% | 9.381% |
| 0.23 | 7.087 | 4.508% | 5.727% | 9.909% |
| 0.24 | 7.143 | 4.788% | 6.195% | 10.441% |
| 0.25 | 7.200 | 5.066% | 6.667% | 10.976% |
Best Way To Throw Dice In Craps
Hop Bets
When I set out on this analysis I thought I would find that the advantage on hop bets was more than on the pass with odds. However, for the most part, it isn't. The only exception would be if your skill factor is at least 12%, and you are throwing at a table in the United Kingdom or Australia, where they pay 16 to 1 on easy hops, and 33 to 1 on hard hops.
Under the UK/Australian rules, my advice on setting for the hop bets is to set anything, and then make hop bets on each of the different combinations showing on the adjacent faces. For example, with Hard Ways set #1, bet on 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5. With Sevens Set #1 bet on 1-6 and 2-5.
Hop Bets
| Skill Factor | RSR | Easy Hop 15 to 1 | Easy Hop 16 to 1 | Hard Hop 30 to 1 | Hard Hop 31 to 1 | Hard Hop 32 to 1 | Hard Hop 33 to 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 6.00 | -11.111% | -5.556% | -13.889% | -11.111% | -8.333% | -5.556% |
| 0.01 | 6.04 | -10.222% | -4.611% | -13.028% | -10.222% | -7.417% | -4.611% |
| 0.02 | 6.08 | -9.333% | -3.667% | -12.167% | -9.333% | -6.500% | -3.667% |
| 0.03 | 6.12 | -8.444% | -2.722% | -11.306% | -8.444% | -5.583% | -2.722% |
| 0.04 | 6.16 | -7.556% | -1.778% | -10.444% | -7.556% | -4.667% | -1.778% |
| 0.05 | 6.21 | -6.667% | -0.833% | -9.583% | -6.667% | -3.750% | -0.833% |
| 0.06 | 6.25 | -5.778% | 0.111% | -8.722% | -5.778% | -2.833% | 0.111% |
| 0.07 | 6.29 | -4.889% | 1.056% | -7.861% | -4.889% | -1.917% | 1.056% |
| 0.08 | 6.34 | -4.000% | 2.000% | -7.000% | -4.000% | -1.000% | 2.000% |
| 0.09 | 6.38 | -3.111% | 2.944% | -6.139% | -3.111% | -0.083% | 2.944% |
| 0.10 | 6.43 | -2.222% | 3.889% | -5.278% | -2.222% | 0.833% | 3.889% |
| 0.11 | 6.47 | -1.333% | 4.833% | -4.417% | -1.333% | 1.75% | 4.833% |
| 0.12 | 6.52 | -0.444% | 5.778% | -3.556% | -0.444% | 2.667% | 5.778% |
| 0.13 | 6.57 | 0.444% | 6.722% | -2.694% | 0.444% | 3.583% | 6.722% |
| 0.14 | 6.62 | 1.333% | 7.667% | -1.833% | 1.333% | 4.500% | 7.667% |
| 0.15 | 6.67 | 2.222% | 8.611% | -0.972% | 2.222% | 5.417% | 8.611% |
| 0.16 | 6.72 | 3.111% | 9.556% | -0.111% | 3.111% | 6.333% | 9.556% |
| 0.17 | 6.77 | 4.000% | 10.500% | 0.750% | 4.000% | 7.25% | 10.500% |
| 0.18 | 6.82 | 4.889% | 11.444% | 1.611% | 4.889% | 8.167% | 11.444% |
| 0.19 | 6.87 | 5.778% | 12.389% | 2.472% | 5.778% | 9.083% | 12.389% |
| 0.20 | 6.92 | 6.667% | 13.333% | 3.333% | 6.667% | 10.000% | 13.333% |
| 0.21 | 6.98 | 7.556% | 14.278% | 4.194% | 7.556% | 10.917% | 14.278% |
| 0.22 | 7.03 | 8.444% | 15.222% | 5.056% | 8.444% | 11.833% | 15.222% |
| 0.23 | 7.09 | 9.333% | 16.167% | 5.917% | 9.333% | 12.750% | 16.167% |
| 0.24 | 7.14 | 10.222% | 17.111% | 6.778% | 10.222% | 13.667% | 17.111% |
| 0.25 | 7.20 | 11.111% | 18.056% | 7.639% | 11.111% | 14.583% | 18.056% |
Links
Books:- Wong on Dice, by Stanford Wong.
- Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution!, by Frank Scoblete.
- Get the Edge at Craps, by Sharpshooter.
- Golden Touch Craps
Internal Links
- How the house edge for each bet is derived, in brief.
- The house edge of all the major bets on both a per-bet made and per-roll basis
- Dice Control Experiments. The results of two experiments on skillful dice throwing.
- Dice Control Advantage. The player advantage, assuming he can influence the dice.
- Craps variants. Alternative rules and bets such as the Fire Bet, Crapless Craps, and Card Craps.
- California craps. How craps is played in California using playing cards.
- Play Craps. Craps game using cards at the Viejas casino in San Diego.
- Number of Rolls Table. Probability of a shooter lasting 1 to 200 rolls before a seven-out.
- Ask the Wizard. See craps questions I've answered about:
- Simple Craps game. My simple Java craps game.
External Links
- Las Vegas craps survey — The max odds bet allowed at each casino.